Small Company Controller with Acquisition & Integration experience needed!!!!

Controller, Vice President Accounting & Finance

Finance and Accounting:

  1. Day-to-day management of the accounting and financial reporting systems
  2. Preparation of detailed budgets
  3. Preparation of detailed financial forecasts
  4. Preparation of cash flow requirements forecasts for debt and accounts payable
  5. Preparation of quarterly consolidated financial statements
  6. Negotiations with vendors

Interfacing with the Company’s accounting firm for the performance of:

  1. Reviews/audits
  2. Quarterly tax filings and annual tax return preparation
  3. Tax planning and advice
  4. Assistance with purchase transactions when unusual issues require
  5. Preparation of required quarterly and year-end statutory filings
  6. Researching emerging accounting issues, developing an understanding of available options, and providing recommendations to CEO
  7. Researching various income and franchise tax options, when applicable, and providing recommendations to CEO
  8. Maintaining fixed asset records
  9. Analyzing operating results (1) in comparison to budgets and (2) for the purpose of identifying potential revenue enhancement and cost reduction strategies
  10. Managing cash balances and implementing cash investment strategies
  11. Preparing financial portions of offering circulars in conjunction with stock issuances
  12. Managing employee benefit programs
  13. Interfacing with the Company’s P&C insurance broker, and other risk management duties, as needed
  14. Preparing investor reporting packages
  15. Preparing required property tax renditions for business personal property and managing property tax issues

Mergers & Acquisitions

  1. Performing due diligence examinations of prospective acquisitions
  2. Assist in reviewing legal documents in conjunction with closings
  3. Assist in performing target company research, including valuation modeling
  4. Auditing the accuracy of information submitted by acquired hospitals not yet on the Company’s Practice Management system
  5. Manage the integration of acquisitions during the merger process

Accounting Manager – Downtown – Energy – dlemaire@cfstaffing.com

Job Duties:
1. Supports preparation and delivery of corporations monthly financial statement close process.  Primary owner of all accounting or regulatory reporting.  Ensures financial transactions are recorded accurately and timely, and analyzes and reviews financial statements for given area of responsibility.  Responsible for complete and accurate preparation of all required reports on a quarterly and annual basis.
2. Prepares, reviews or approves account reconciliations for corporations entities and accounts, as required.
3. Prepares the monthly reporting packages for corporate entities including analysis of current actual results to prior period actual results for corporation- for use in Board and Senior Management reporting and external reporting.
4. Supports the implementation of changes in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).
5. Supports in the accounting, analysis and budgeting of various accounts.
6. Consults and liaises with operating unit finance personnel on accounting issues.
7. Cooperates in special projects and special requests as required for the Controllers Group.
8. Interacts with internal and external auditors, Corporate Controllers Department and business units as required to accomplish goals.

-Bachelors degree in accounting, finance or general business administration.
-Experience is typically career level (8-10 years) in accounting, financial reporting or related field. Public Accounting experience is preferred.
-Experience with Financial Statement Consolidations
-Demonstrated knowledge of generally accepted accounting principles

Preferred:
-MBA in Finance, Accounting or Economics and/or CPA or other financial certification is preferred

#MotivationMonday: 7 Tools Every Job Seeker Needs

Happy Monday! This is a great read for job seekers!

Daniela Velasquez's avatarExecutive Recruiter HTX

If you are considering a job hunt or revamping your current search in 2015, these are the tools and apps you need to succeed in finding your next opportunity:

1. Email signature. Your email signature is possibly one of the most important branding tools you’re not taking advantage of. It’s your chance to let everyone know what your expertise is, how to contact you and where to learn more about you online. Employees are often required to add the company logo, tag line and contact information to email signatures. As job seekers, an email signature is a subtle way to remind people what you do.

Quick tips: The most important information to include is your name, phone number, email address, desired occupation and link to your LinkedIn profile. An easy solution is to use an app like WiseStamp to create and insert your signature.

2. Active and…

View original post 685 more words

Current Accounting & Finance Openings: Houston & San Antonio, TX

Current Accounting & Finance Openings: Houston & San Antonio, TX

Interested in any of these opportunities, or know someone that might be? Contact me directly: dlemaire@cfstaffing.com

Local Searches:

  • Full Time – Consultant – Transactions Advisory Services – All Levels!!!!
  • Full Time – Consultant – Financial Advisory Services – All Levels!!!!!
  • Hyperion Financial Analyst – HFM, Hyperion or Smartview experience – 1 to 2 years of experience!!!!
  • Inventory Accounting Senior Manager – Pre-IPO company!
  • Sales& Use Tax Accountant – staff and senior
  • Controller – Healthcare Staffing – SW Houston
  • AP Manager – SAP experience!!!!!
  • Staff Accountant – Hobby Airport
  • Senior Corporate Accountant – Galleria – Big 4 exp.
  • Senior Corporate Accountant – Galleria – public accounting experience
  • Fixed Asset Accountant – Galleria
  • Public Accounting Tax and Audit – All levels
  • Senior Accountant – Cost – Katy
  • SEC Reporting Director – DT
  • Project Accounting Manager – Dallas
  • E&P Controller – North Houston
  • VP Finance – E&P and PE experience – North Houston
  • SEC Senior Accountant – DT
  • Financial Analyst – Woodlands – Big 4 Experience required
  • Staff Accountant – Cypress
  • Assistant Controller – Cypress
  • Financial Analyst – Greenway Plaza – Modeling
  • Staff Accountant – Katy
  • Entry level Accountant – Sugar Land
  • Senior Accountant – Consolidations – Westchase
  • Audit Senior – E&P – DT
  • AP Manager – Construction – North
  • Senior Budget Accountant – DT
  • HR Supervisor – WestChase
  • Staff Auditor – heavy domestic travel – will look at new grads with audit internships
  • International Tax Manager

San Antonio Searches:

  • Corporate Accounting Manager
  • Sales Auditor
  • Audit Manager – Industry
  • Financial Analyst – Treasury
  • Controller – small company
  • Controller – Manufacturing
  • Senior Auditor – Industry
  • Tax Staff and Senior – Public Accounting

Interview Preparation – My Two Cents!

I put this together a few years ago. I have learned a lot over the years about interview techniques from mistakes my candidates and clients have made. Yes, I have made some too along the way. Below is a summary of tips I have learned and/or read online. Some of them should be self-explanatory, but sadly they are not.  I call this my “2 Page Interview Prep”. There are a lot of things I like to give my candidates to get ready for an interview, but this is the most important one. I hope you learn something new or hold on to it for future reference.

Interview Preparation
The more prepared you are the more confident you will be!

• Buy a portfolio if you do not have one.
• Make copies of your resume and reference list.
• Make sure your suit is dry-cleaned and ready!!!! Yes, you have to wear a suit!
• Do your research! Go to the company website, Yahoo Finance, Hoovers and MSN Money. Look for goals and objectives, corporate culture and any new press releases. This information will be imperative for the interview.
• Google the company name and the interviewer’s name.
• Compare your resume to the job description. Think about accomplishments you can point out. Make sure you can explain all reasons for leaving. Make the responses short and to the point. Never, ever say anything negative about an employer in an interview. Believe it or not, it IS a very small world.
• Prepare a list of at least 5 questions per interviewer and have them ready in your portfolio. Please put some thought into them!
• Make sure you have the directions.
• Role-play with anyone!!! Interviewing is not your profession. You have to practice!!!! Practice the hard to answer questions. You never want to sound scripted or that you are fishing for an answer. If you do not know how to answer specific questions, ask your recruiter for advice!!!!

The Day of the Interview:
Don’t forget to smile and have a positive attitude. First impressions can make or break an interview!
• Arrive Early (if you do not know the location drive by the night before)
• Review your notes before you go in.
• Give yourself a prep talk (you should be a little bit nervous, this is normal).
• Walk in with confidence and tell the receptionist whom you are there to see.
• Make sure you are looking for your interviewer. Do not sit and read. Sit with confidence and a smile on your face!!!!
• Don’t forget a firm handshake. If you have a tendency to have sweaty palms, wash your hands with really cold water before you ender the reception area.
• If you have a problem with direct eye contact, look at their eyebrows. They will never know the difference.

The Interview:
Don’t worry if you have done your homework you are well on your way.
• Rule number 1…People love to talk about themselves. Don’t forget to ask about the interviewer’s background and why they like working for their employer.
• It is very important to establish rapport. Look for commonalities.
• Ask to have a typical day described to you; ask about projects and how you can make an immediate impact. Remember: The employer is probably doing his job and the one you are interviewing for as well. The more you can help, the more likely they are to hire you.
• Talk about your accomplishment and goals. Be prepared to talk about challenges and how you met them.
• Always know the answer to strength and weakness question. Don’t forget about your 5-year goal.
• Make sure you ask the questions you prepared. Don’t forget to include questions to better understand the job and what it would take to be successful.
• Don’t ask about benefits or money. This is about the job and the company. Your recruiter can get you that information.
• If the money question comes up tell them it is more about the opportunity and you are sure they would make you a fair and competitive offer. If they press you tell them what you are making. If they keep pushing you give them a range. Never, ever give them a number!!! And do not put a number on their application.
• Don’t forget to ask a lot of questions and show enthusiasm. Most candidates are cut from the process simply because the manager does not think the candidate is interested.

The Close:
This is your chance to bring it all together.
• Tell them you are interested.
• Ask if there are any concerns about your ability to do the job. This is your last chance to sell yourself!!!!
• Explain that after learning more about the company and the position you are even more excited about this opportunity. Review the experience you can contribute and ask for the job or the next step in the process.

The Follow up:
• Call your recruiter immediately. It is essential that we speak to you before we speak to the client to understand your interest level.
• Very few candidates actually write a thank you note. I recommend an email immediately after and a hand written note as well.

Diane Delgado LeMaire | Senior Managing Director
5718 Westheimer Suite 800 | Houston, TX 77057
713.490.6003 | dlemaire@cfstaffing.com

Accounting & Finance Professionals: Are you ready to revamp your resume and not sure where to start?

Accounting & Finance Professionals: Are you ready to revamp your resume and not sure where to start?

The entire process of writing a resume can be overwhelming. What do you include? How long should it be? Do you need an objective? What format should you use? Recently, I put together a list of pointers and some links that will hopefully help you with this process. 

Some pointers from me (remember, these are my opinions):

  • Recruiters LOVE chronological resumes. We want to see how you have grown in your career and what types of companies you have worked for.
  • If you graduated within the past 5 years, keep your education on the top portion of your resume. Everyone is always looking for people with 3 to 5 years of experience!
  • If you have a CPA, CIA, or CFE designation, put it behind your name on the top of the resume! I never understand why anyone would put this at the bottom. You earned it and you should show it off!
  • If you are eligible to sit for an exam or have passed sections, add that to the education section of your resume. This is important to employers today.
  • Always, always use bullet points. I am not going to read a paragraph!!!!
  • Objectives are not necessary and honestly, I think they can hurt you at times. If you feel like you need it, please change the objective for every job ad you apply to.
  • Summary sections or tables are great to highlight your background, but don’t make it too long!
  • Did you get promoted or move into another group at the same company? Include that in your resume, but don’t re-write the company name each time! At first glance, you can look like a job hopper rather than a promotable candidate!
  • Do you volunteer? Were you in the military? Active Greek Alumni? It is okay to add some personality to your resume.
  • Don’t forget to add your software skills. If you know the versions and modules you are working with….add them! Are you an advanced Excel user (VLOOKUP, Marcos, Pivot Tables)? Mention that too!
  • And yes, your resume can be longer than a page. But keep it to 3 pages, absolute MAX!
  • Don’t put a bullet point on your resume that you cannot speak about. Being exposed or watching someone else do something does not mean you have mastered that skill!
  • Is your GPA above a 3.0? Add that too! And don’t forget your graduation date.
  • Remember, your resume is your marketing piece. Most recruiters spend about 10 seconds looking at your resume before they decide if they will keep it or toss it. That is not a long time to make a first impression.
  • You should update your resume at least once a year. It’s a great end of the year activity! Write down your latest accomplishments, add new responsibilities you took on, or recent software programs or ERPs you worked with. Bottom line: Just spend a few minutes and add a bullet point or two.

Website Links to use:

  1. http://www.bauer.uh.edu/career-center/docs/career-guides-resources/Sample-Resume-Format.pdf
  2. http://careercenter.tamu.edu/docs/ResumeWritingBrochureFall2009.pdf
  3. https://www.utexas.edu/cola/orgs/lacs/_files/pdf/Resume-Cover%20Letter/resume_guideandsample11_28.pdf
  4. https://ccd.rice.edu/uploadedFiles/CCD/Students/resumewriting.pdf
  5. http://www.uh.edu/ucs/resources/guides/ResumeHandoutNew.pdf

Happy updating!

Diane Delgado LeMaire @CPARecruiterHOU

https://www.facebook.com/CPARecruiterHouCFS

How to use the Business Journal to put your job search in high speed By Dana Manciagli via http://www.danamanciagli.com/

Here is another great source of information to assist with your job search!

How to use the Business Journal to put your job search in high speed

Link: http://www.danamanciagli.com/how-to-use-the-business-journal-to-put-your-job-search-in-high-speed/

//

Previously I’ve written about how to use the Business Journals to set goals, find hiring managers, and identify multiple target companies in your area.

If you haven’t invested in your local Business Journal or don’t spend time reading it, you’re missing out. If you do have an online or print subscription to your local Business Journal, you can maximize the value of your investment by using it to get your next career move in motion or learn how to network better.

Let’s get straight to the career move actions you can take right away! And the specific features of the Business Journals that will help you along the way.

Research before applying

If you are searching for a job today, stop those random acts of application right now! No more papering the planet with résumés and applications. Pause and do your homework. Careful and thorough research will make your application stand out and increase your chances to win an interview. For each position you are considering, spend plenty of time doing these three things:

  • Search your local Business Journal site for articles about the target company, such as recent stories, key executive moves, new construction, mergers and acquisitions and awards they may have won. Don’t stop with your target company, do the same for their competition.
  • Go to the company’s website and read it all, not just the main pages. Use Bing or Google to do a web search and read speeches and presentations, financial filings of public companies, press releases and any other documents referencing your target company.
  • Research the division, product line, or group within the company that you are applying to.

Use this information to identify the skills and experiences that you want to highlight in your cover letter or call out in your résumé.

Do no wait until the night before the interview to do your research. From the beginning of your job search, today’s competitive era requires the highest degree of knowledge about your target company. Your research will strengthen the content in your cover letter, the details you include in your résumé and the way you network.

Get out and network

It’s great that you have your LinkedIn profile at 100 percent and you are connecting with business peers online. However, there is no doubt that the highest quality relationships are built by meeting face to face. And if your next career move is important to you, then you need to build quality two-way relationships fast.

This is no time for excuses! Don’t find yourself using any of these top three excuses for not networking face-to-face:

  • I don’t have time.
  • I am an introvert.
  • I don’t know where to go.

We can solve the last one right here! Your local Business Journal is the place to go for all things career related, including calendars of networking opportunities. Not only does each Business Journal host many of their own events, they publish a calendar of other business events in their area. And you can read about local associations, industry trade groups, and clubs that host their own networking events, too.

How to use the Business Journal to put your job search in high speed By Dana Manciagli via http://www.danamanciagli.com/

June 2015 Newsletter for Accounting and Finance Professionals by Diane Delgado LeMaire @ CFS

I have 3 other ways to get my blog updates…..besides actually following this blog.

  1. Are we linked on LinkedIn? Invite me! dlemaire@cfstaffing.com
  2. Do you follow me on twitter? @CPARecruiterHOU
  3. Or do you prefer Facebook? https://www.facebook.com/CPARecruiterHouCFS

June 2015

Industry News and Updates

I recently had the opportunity to attend the Regional Forecasting Symposium put on by the C.T. Bauer College of Business in May. I love attending events like these, because I can share all the latest information with my candidates and clients about our local economy. At this event, Robert Gilmer discussed how oil & gas prices have impacted us in the past and will continue to in the future.

Here are some of the interesting things I learned:

  • In 2013 Houston has experienced the largest average income growth since 1969
  • This is not the oil bust of 1982. The construction boom is making up for this.
  • The price of oil has dropped simply because of weak demand and excessive supply. Production has more than doubled in the US.
  • 65 dollars seems to be the sweet spot where most companies can make money and we can enjoy low gas prices.
  • Best case scenario: we are back to 65 dollars in 2016; worst case scenario: 70 dollars a barrel in 2020
  • The great oil boom is over, for now.
  • Our unemployment rate in Houston is still lower than the U.S.
  • Energy jobs have led Houston growth over the past decade.
  • As a result to low natural gas prices, there is a new boom in the petrochemical industry.
  • There is also a 138 Billion dollar construction boom due to the cheap energy and exports prices.

In conclusion, it was determined that due to the construction and petrochemical growths, we will see the East side of Houston (blue collar) outperform the West side of Houston (white collar). This construction boom should take us through 2017.

See you again in August!

Local Statistics:

  • National / Houston Unemployment rate:6/4.0
  • Price of Oil:$59.47 (last year $102)
  • Oil Rig Count:889 (last year 1859)
  • Industries hiring:Construction, Construction, Engineering & Construction, Some E&P, Manufacturing & Consumer Goods
  • Positions in demand:Staff and Senior Accountants, Public Accounting Tax, Project and Cost Accountants

Interesting Articles:

Local Searches:

  • Full Time – Consultant – Transactions Advisory Services – All Levels!!!!
  • Full Time – Consultant – Financial Advisory Services – All Levels!!!!!
  • Hyperion Financial Analyst – HFM, Hyperion or Smartview experience – 1 to 2 years of experience!!!!
  • Inventory Accounting Senior Manager – Pre-IPO company!
  • Sales& Use Tax Accountant – staff and senior
  • Controller – Healthcare Staffing – SW Houston
  • AP Manager – SAP experience!!!!!
  • Staff Accountant – Hobby Airport
  • Senior Corporate Accountant – Galleria – Big 4 exp.
  • Senior Corporate Accountant – Galleria – public accounting experience
  • Fixed Asset Accountant – Galleria
  • Public Accounting Tax and Audit – All levels
  • Senior Accountant – Cost – Katy
  • SEC Reporting Director – DT
  • Project Accounting Manager – Dallas
  • E&P Controller – North Houston
  • VP Finance – E&P and PE experience – North Houston
  • SEC Senior Accountant – DT
  • Financial Analyst – Woodlands – Big 4 Experience required
  • Staff Accountant – Cypress
  • Assistant Controller – Cypress
  • Financial Analyst – Greenway Plaza – Modeling
  • Staff Accountant – Katy
  • Entry level Accountant – Sugar Land
  • Senior Accountant – Consolidations – Westchase
  • Audit Senior – E&P – DT
  • AP Manager – Construction – North
  • Senior Budget Accountant – DT
  • HR Supervisor – WestChase
  • Staff Auditor – heavy domestic travel – will look at new grads with audit internships
  • International Tax Manager

San Antonio Searches:

  • Corporate Accounting Manager
  • Sales Auditor
  • Audit Manager – Industry
  • Financial Analyst – Treasury
  • Controller – small company
  • Controller – Manufacturing
  • Senior Auditor – Industry
  • Tax Staff and Senior – Public Accounting

Diane Delgado LeMaire | Senior Managing Director, Executive Search & Branch Manager Creative Financial Staffing (CFS) 5718 Westheimer Suite 800, Houston, Texas 77057 T: 713.490.6003dlemaire@cfstaffing.com | www.cfstaffing.com |

#MotivationMonday – How to Stay Motivated in a Job Search

Daniela Velasquez's avatarExecutive Recruiter HTX

Because I have a love for YouTube, and YouTube is the world’s 2nd largest search engine after Google, I’m sharing a video with you today for #MotivationMonday. If you’ve been engaged in a job search for several months and are in need of some motivation, hopefully this video will have some tips for you:

If you currently have accounting & finance staffing needs or are seeking employment, please contact me dvelasquez@cfstaffing.com.

View original post

HIRING: Senior Internal Auditor – Cypress, TX – dvelasquez@cfstaffing.com

Daniela Velasquez's avatarExecutive Recruiter HTX

Contact me directly for details: dvelasquez@cfstaffing.com

Job Description

The successful candidate will work on internal audit activities encompassing 150+ locations at a global dynamic Fortune 500 company with over $10 billion in revenue.

This position is expected to conduct internal audits from planning to reporting. The candidate will work on multiple audits performing as a team leader, a team member or as a sole contributor. When leading projects, this individual is expected to manage teams of 1 – 2 high skilled professionals.

This position requires carrying out audit procedures, in accordance with professional standards, to evaluate control deficiencies and to recommend appropriate corrective actions across the whole business in an effort to help management to better monitor and maintain internal controls, risk management framework and corporate governance.

The individual should also be capable of identifying process improvement opportunities for management’s consideration, be able to perform at the highest professional level…

View original post 203 more words

Whether Employers Realize It Or Not, It’s Now a Candidate-Driven Market

Randy Schwartz's avatarRandy The Recruiter by Randy Schwartz, Executive Recruiter

ATTENTION Hiring Managers!!!!  We are in a MUCH different employment market than you might think.  Unemployment continues to plummet.  Demand for talent continues to remain higher than supply.  And there is still discrepancies between the skills employers seek and those candidates possess.  This is what we call a true Candidate Market.

The article that John put together below has some very important facts and figures.  OH, and he wrote this 6 months ago.  The market has only gotten tighter since then!

As a company, as a talent resource professional, and as a hiring manager, one must adapt to the current market dynamics.  Or run the risk of losing your top candidates to your competition.  This is happening all across the country, not just in certain  markets.

I hope you enjoy John’s information and would love to hear your thoughts and/or recent stories about how this may have impacted you on…

View original post 363 more words

HIRING: International Tax Manager – Galleria – dlemaire@cfstaffing.com

Contact me directly for details: dlemaire@cfstaffing.com

Job Summary
This position requires broad experience in international tax matters, including quarterly accounting for income taxes (ASC-740), US tax compliance (including forms 5471, 8858, 8865, 1118, 5472, 1120-F, TDF 90-22.1, 5713 etc.), foreign corporate income tax, transfer pricing, tax audit management and defense, cash repatriation, and marketing support for new drilling contracts. Employees in this position will work directly with associates in company field offices and third party advisors on foreign income tax and transfer pricing matters.

Experience
Minimum of five years previous experience in a similar role
Experience with quarterly accounting for income taxes (ASC-740)
Experience with US international tax compliance
Experience with foreign corporate income tax
Experience with transfer pricing
Experience with audit defense
Experience with cash repatriation management
Experience with customer contracts

Education and Training
Bachelor’s degree from accredited college or university in accounting
Certified Public Accountant (CPA)

Minimum Requirements
• Sound analytical, strategic and business planning skills.
• Excellent conflict resolution skills and ability to diplomatically handle confrontation.
• Ability to multi-task and establish priorities.
• Ability to maintain flexible attitude and approach towards assignments and successfully operate under ambiguous guidelines.
• Ability to maintain organization in a changing environment.
• Strong interpersonal skills, ability to communicate effectively and professionally with internal customers and external contacts to the organization.
• Ability to exercise sound judgment and make decisions in a manner consistent with the essential job functions.
• Knowledge of financial accounting, purchasing and management systems.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Excel at an advanced level.
• Commitment to a high standard of safety and be willing and able to comply with all safety laws and all of the employer’s safety policies and rules and must be willing to report safety violations and potential safety violations to appropriate supervisory or management personnel.
• Must maintain regular and acceptable attendance at such level as is determined in the employer’s sole discretion.
• Must be available and willing to travel to such locations and with such frequency as the employer determines is necessary or desirable to meet its business needs. Significant travel is not expected.
• Must perform duties onsite, except those job duties which are customarily or by their nature performed offsite.

Principal Duties and Responsibilities
• Prepare and/or review quarterly tax accounting calculations for US Subpart F income and foreign country tax provisions.
• Prepare and/or review US tax compliance related to international transactions (Forms 5471, 8858, 8865, 1118, 5472, 1120-F, TDF 90-22.1, 5713 etc.) in Corptax.
• Review foreign subsidiary financial statements and corporate income tax returns prepared by third party advisors.
• Monitor transfer pricing for compliance with arm’s length standard, work with associates in the legal and accounting departments to properly document and record intercompany transactions.
• Work with third party advisors to provide data for the preparation of transfer pricing documentation, as required.
• Prepare and/or review responses, as necessary, to queries and documentation requests from tax authorities in connection with tax audits.
• Work with associates in the treasury department to repatriate cash in a tax efficient manner.
• Review customer contracts for tax issues and recommend tax structures for performing contracts in a tax efficient manner.
• Assist Director – Tax on other projects as needed.

#MotivationMonday: 20 Motivational Quotes for Job Seekers by Dorlee Michaeli via www.socialwork.career

Could you use a little encouragement as you are looking for a job or contemplating a career change?

I think that we could all use that from time to time… To that end, I put together a list of twenty quotations that you may find helpful.

My hope is that reading them will remind you that it is only a matter of time before you will find the job that you are looking for and that if the process is taking longer than you would like, please keep on looking and refreshing your skills, you will get there!

“Every experience in your life is being orchestrated to teach you something you need to know to move forward.” – Brian Tracy

“The results you achieve will be in direct proportion to the effort you apply.” – Dennis Waitley

Ready to read more? Follow this link: http://www.socialwork.career/2011/08/20-motivational-quotes-for-job-seekers.html

The Candidates WILL NOT Wait for Companies to Make Hiring Decisions BY Will Thomson via bullseyerecruiting.net

Great article for anyone who is a hiring manager……

The Candidates WILL NOT Wait for Companies to Make Hiring Decisions

The Candidates WILL NOT Wait for Companies to Make Hiring Decisions

image: http://bullseyerecruiting.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/CandidateWIllNotWait.jpg

CandidateWIllNotWaitNews Flash!! It is 2015 and it is an employee’s market. Have I said that this year? Only about a thousand times. Summertime does not mean hiring is slowing down. It means that hiring is hot as the Texas weather. That, my friends, is steaming hot.Dear employers, you do not have the luxury of waiting to find the perfect candidate. You cannot put candidates through rigorous testing. You can’t low ball offers. You won’t win a heated negotiation battle if you frustrate the candidate by drawing out  process. You WILL lose to your competition. Trust me. I’ve seen it first-hand. It is heartbreaking to the company, the candidate, and it is causing me to lose hair. Can’t we just stop this?

You want to win the battle in recruiting this year? Here is the recipe.

  • Have a process.
  • Follow through with your candidates.
  • Meet or exceed what they are looking for in their salary
  • Have a speedy hiring process

Yep, that is about it. If you have those four things, the chances of you hiring someone go up exponentially. If you don’t do those things, you are going to have a long year. It is going to suck. You won’t get the hires you want, you will spend the entire year looking for candidates, and you will lose your job because you haven’t been able to deliver what you promised.

I truly can’t believe what I am seeing. Urgency has always been important in recruiting, but it is paramount this year. Since everybody has a plan to hire people, you have to be one foot ahead of the competition. If you want to hire in July, you should have started already and be PREPARED to make an offer when the right candidate comes along.

When the right candidate comes along, you need to move on it and fast. It is kind of like a hot real estate market. When you find the right house, you can’t afford to look at 15 others before making an offer. The house you found will be LONG GONE.

You better have a damn good recruiter on your side because you are going to need him/her. They are going to partner with you and sell and re-sell the candidate and the company. That is what it is going to take because THE MINUTE the person decides they are on the market and available to other opportunities, they are looking at EVERY opportunity out there. They are not just looking at yours! If a candidate tells you that they are only looking at your company when the process begins, by the end of your interview process expect them to have 2-5 other opportunities they are looking at also.

Another thing. Company culture? Meh. It plays a part in the candidate’s decision. Flexible workplace?  Definitely. Don’t forget though, employees want to be paid! They want to be paid market value or above and definitely want more than they are being paid today unless it comes with some other significantly impressive perks (and I’m not talking about ping pong and free lattes).  Why would anyone offer less than what they are currently being paid? IT IS HAPPENING! If you are making a change, you will want a promotion, not a lateral move.

In conclusion, we have made it halfway through 2015. If you are like most organizations, you need to re-evaluate your recruiting strategy if you are going to be successful this year. Managers and companies need to get rid of some of their old hiring tactics and just get over their need to be in control. You are not in control anymore. The candidate is in control. So change your process and your mindset. Be sure to follow through with candidates, be reasonable in salary offers, and make the process as painless as you can.  It will benefit you BOTH in the long run.

Read more at http://bullseyerecruiting.net/the-candidates-will-not-wait-for-companies-to-make-hiring-decisions/#lAePiGZtCBlvvzYR.99

8 Things Every Person Should Do Before 8 A.M. By Benjamin Hardy via https://medium.com/@benjaminhardy/

This is not my typical post, but I LOVE to read articles like this. I am always trying to better myself 🙂

View at Medium.com

8 Things Every Person Should Do Before 8 A.M.

Life is busy. It can feel impossible to move toward your dreams. If you have a full-time job and kids, it’s even harder.

How do you move forward?

If you don’t purposefully carve time out every day to progress and improve — without question, your time will get lost in the vacuum of our increasingly crowded lives. Before you know it, you’ll be old and withered — wondering where all that time went.

As Professor Harold Hill has said — “You pile up enough tomorrows, and you’ll find you are left with nothing but a lot of empty yesterdays.”

Rethinking Your Life and Getting Out of Survival Mode

This article is intended to challenge you to rethink your entire approach to life. The purpose is to help you simplify and get back to the fundamentals.

Sadly, most people’s lives are filled to the brim with the nonessential and trivial. They don’t have time to build toward anything meaningful.

They are in survival mode. Are you in survival mode?

Like Bilbo, most of us are like butter scraped over too much bread. Unfortunately, the bread is not even our own, but someone else’s. Very few have taken the time to take their lives into their own hands.

It was social and cultural to live our lives on other people’s terms just one generation ago. And many millennials are perpetuating this process simply because it’s the only worldview we’ve been taught.

However, there is a growing collective-consciousness that with a lot of work and intention — you can live every moment of your life on your own terms.

You are the designer of your destiny.

You are responsible.

You get to decide. You must decide — because if you don’t, someone else will. Indecision is a bad decision.

With this short morning routine, your life will quickly change.

It may seem like a long list. But in short, it’s really quite simple:

  • Wake up
  • Get in the zone
  • Get moving
  • Put the right food in your body
  • Get ready
  • Get inspired
  • Get perspective
  • Do something to move you forward

Let’s begin:

1. Get A Healthy 7+ Hours of Sleep

Let’s face it — Sleep is just as important as eating and drinking water. Despite this, millions of people do not sleep enough and experience insane problems as a result.

The National Sleep Foundation (NSF) conducted surveys revealing that at least 40 million Americans suffer from over 70 different sleep disorders. Not only that, 60 percent of adults, and 69 percent of children, experience one or more sleep problems a few nights or more during a week.

In addition, more than 40 percent of adults experience daytime sleepiness severe enough to interfere with their daily activities at least a few days each month — with 20 percent reporting problem sleepiness a few days a week or more.

On the flipside, getting a healthy amount of sleep is linked to:

  • Increased memory
  • Longer life
  • Decreased inflammation
  • Increased creativity
  • Increased attention and focus
  • Decreased fat and increased muscle mass with exercise
  • Lower stress
  • Decreased dependence on stimulants like caffeine
  • Decreased risk of getting into accidents
  • Decreased risk of depression
  • And tons more… google it.

The rest of this blog post is worthless if you don’t make sleep a priority. Who cares if you wake up at 5 o’clock A.M. if you went to bed three hours earlier?

You won’t last long.

You may use stimulants to compensate, but that isn’t sustainable. In the long-run, your health will fall apart. The goal needs to be long-term sustainability.

2. Prayer and Meditation to Facilitate Clarity and Abundance

After waking from a healthy and restful sleep session, prayer and meditation are crucial for orienting yourself toward the positive. What you focus on expands.

Prayer and meditation facilitate intense gratitude for all that you have. Gratitude is having an abundance mindset. When you think abundantly, the world is your oyster. There is limitless opportunity and possibility for you.

People are magnets. When you’re grateful for what you have, you will attract more of the positive and good. Gratitude is contagious.

Gratitude may be the most important key to success. It has been called the mother of all virtues.

If you start every morning putting yourself in a space of gratitude and clarity, you will attract the best the world has to offer, and not get distracted.

3. Hard Physical Activity

Despite endless evidence of the need for exercise, only one-third of American men and women between the ages of 25 to 64 years engage in regular physical activity according to the Center for Disease Control’s National Health Interview Survey.

If you want to be among the healthy, happy, and productive people in the world, get in the habit of regular exercise. Many people go immediately to the gym to get their body moving. I have lately found that doing yard work in the wee hours of the morning generates an intense inflow of inspiration and clarity.

Whatever your preference, get your body moving.

Exercise has been found to decrease your chance of depression, anxiety, and stress. It is also related to higher success in your career.

If you don’t care about your body, every other aspect of your life will suffer. Humans are holistic beings.

4. Consume 30 Grams of Protein

Donald Layman, professor emeritus of nutrition at the University of Illinois, recommends consuming at least 30 grams of protein for breakfast. Similarly, Tim Ferriss, in his book, The 4-Hour Body, also recommends 30 grams of protein 30 minutes after waking up.

According to Tim, his father did this and lost 19 pounds in one month.

Protein-rich foods keep you full longer than other foods because they take longer to leave the stomach. Also, protein keeps blood-sugar levels steady, which prevents spikes in hunger.

Eating protein first decreases your white carbohydrate cravings. These are the types of carbs that get you fat. Think bagels, toast, and donuts.

Tim makes four recommendations for getting adequate protein in the morning:

  • Eat at least 40% of your breakfast calories as protein
  • Do it with two or three whole eggs (each egg has about 6g protein)
  • If you don’t like eggs, use something like turkey bacon, organic pork bacon or sausage, or cottage cheese
  • Or, you could always do a protein shake with water

For people who avoid dairy, meat, and eggs, there are several plant-based proteins. Legumes, greens, nuts, and seeds all are rich in protein.

5. Take A Cold Shower

Tony Robbins starts every morning by jumping into a 57-degree Fahrenheit swimming pool.

Why would he do such a thing?

Cold water immersion radically facilitates physical and mental wellness. When practiced regularly, it provides long-lasting changes to your body’s immune, lymphatic, circulatory and digestive systems that improve the quality of your life. It can also increase weight-loss because it boosts your metabolism.

A 2007 research study found that taking cold showers routinely can help treat depression symptoms often more effectively than prescription medications. That’s because cold water triggers a wave of mood-boosting neurochemicals which make you feel happy.

There is of course, an initial fear of stepping into a cold shower. Without a doubt, if you’ve tried this before, you have found yourself standing outside the shower dreading the thought of going in.

You may have even talked yourself out of it and said, “Maybe tomorrow.” And turned the hot water handle before getting in.

Or, maybe you jumped in but quickly turned the hot water on?

What has helped me is thinking about it like a swimming pool. It’s a slow painful death to get into a cold pool slowly. You just need to jump in. After 20 seconds, you’re fine.

It’s the same way with taking a cold shower. You get in, you heart starts beating like crazy. Then, after like 20 seconds, you feel fine.

To me, it increases my willpower and boosts my creativity and inspiration. While standing with the cold water hitting my back, I practice slowing my breathing and calming down. After I’ve chilled out, I feel super happy and inspired. Lots of ideas start flowing and I become way motivated to achieve my goals.

6. Listen to/Read Uplifting Content

Ordinary people seek entertainment. Extraordinary people seek education and learning. It is common for the world’s most successful people to read at least one book per week. They are constantly learning.

I can easily get through one audiobook per week by just listening during my commute to school and while walking on campus.

Taking even 15–30 minutes every morning to read uplifting and instructive information changes you. It puts you in the zone to perform at your highest.

Over a long enough period of time, you will have read hundreds of books. You’ll be knowledgeable on several topics. You’ll think and see the world differently. You’ll be able to make more connections between different topics.

7. Review Your Life Vision

Your goals should be written down — short term and long term. Taking just a few minutes to read your life vision puts your day into perspective.

If you read your long term goals every day you will think about them every day. If you think about them every day, and spend your days working toward them, they’ll manifest.

Achieving goals is a science. There’s no confusion or ambiguity to it. If you follow a simple pattern, you can accomplish all of your goals, no matter how big they are.

A fundamental aspect of that is writing them down and reviewing them every single day.

8. Do At Least One Thing Towards Long-Term Goals

Willpower is like a muscle that depletes when it is exercised. Similarly, our ability to make high quality decisions becomes fatigued over time. The more decisions you make, the lower quality they become — the weaker your willpower.

Consequently, you need to do the hard stuff first thing in the morning. The important stuff.

If you don’t, it simply will not get done. By the end of your day, you’ll be exhausted. You’ll be fried. There will be a million reasons to just start tomorrow. And you will start tomorrow — which is never.

So your mantra becomes: The worst comes first. Do that thing you’ve been needing to do. Then do it again tomorrow.

If you take just one step toward you big goals every day, you’ll realize those goals weren’t really far away.

Conclusion

After you’ve done this, no matter what you have for the rest of your day, you’ll have done the important stuff first. You’ll have put yourself in a place to succeed. You’ll have inched toward your dreams.

Because you’ll have done all these things, you’ll show up better in life. You’ll be better at your job. You’ll be better in your relationships. You’ll be happier. You’ll be more confident. You’ll be more bold and daring. You’ll have more clarity and vision.

Your life will shortly change.

You can’t have mornings like this consistently without waking up to all that is incongruent in your life. Those things you despise will meet their demise. They’ll disappear and never return.

You’ll quickly find you’re doing the work you’re passionate about.

Your relationships will be passionate, meaningful, deep, and fun!

You will have freedom and abundance.

The world, and the universe, will respond to you in beautiful ways.

Houston Outlook Grows Darker as the Oil Downturn Becomes Deeper and Longer June 23, 2015 Via Institute For Regional Forecasting – Bauer College of Business

http://www.bauer.uh.edu/centers/irf/houston-updates.php

Houston Updates: Houston Outlook Grows Darker as the Oil Downturn Becomes Deeper and Longer

Houston Outlook Grows Darker as the Oil Downturn Becomes Deeper and Longer

June 23, 2015

The Houston economy is once more struggling through another downturn in oil markets. Oil prices fell below $50 from January to March, and have recently stabilized near $60. The Baker Hughes rig count is down by over 50 percent, and capital spending in the oil fields is estimated to be down by one-third or more or as much as $100 billion.1

This marks the fourth oil-related setback for Houston since 1982. The disastrous 1982-87 recession can be largely discounted as a guide to how the current drilling downturn will affect the Houston economy. It was an economic tragedy unlikely to be repeated, resulting from a triple blow from energy, real estate, and the collapse of the Texas banking system. Together these events brought nearly five years of decline to Houston, and snuffed out more than one job in eight. In contrast, the Asian Financial crisis in 1998-99 saw oil prices fall to $10 per barrel and the domestic rig count cut by half, but Houston lost no jobs thanks largely to a very strong national economy. Then in 2001-02, the combination of U.S. recession, the Tech Bust, and the fall of Enron resulted in a decline of local employment of less than one percent, and the 2008-09 American Financial Crisis saw job losses of 4.2 percent. These last three downturns are much better models for what is happening in Houston today than the 1982-87 recession. (Table 1.)

As we have noted in two previous economic updates, Houston will receive relief this time around from two sources: (1) a strong national economy, and (2) a major construction boom in east Houston driven by low natural gas prices.2 Out of $138 billion in nationwide spending for new chemical projects – a result of low energy prices and the shale revolution — metropolitan Houston’s share is about $30 billion.3 The combination of a drilling downturn, a strong national economy and substantial heavy construction means that Houston will likely avoid job losses in 2015 and 2016. But the local economy may barely skirt recession. Should Houston create fewer than 15,000 new jobs in 2015 – as it does in the scenarios presented below — it will contrast sharply with the 100,000 new jobs the metro area averaged each year from 2012 to 2014. The effects of the energy downturn will be felt very unevenly across the metropolitan area.

Houston Economy Now Feeling the Economic Pain

The economic outlook for Houston has turned increasingly negative as we have moved into 2015. It has been a year since the slide in oil prices began, although serious concern did not really set in until last Thanksgiving Day, when OPEC announced it would let the market set future oil prices. Just as they did in 1982, OPEC withdrew from its role as the swing producer, i.e., the oil producer willing to cut production in order to support oil prices. They strongly signaled that in the future producers of high-cost sources of oil like shale oil from Texas and North Dakota would be responsible for removing surplus oil from world markets. This has set off a difficult and messy retreat for hundreds of U.S. oil producers. With cash flow cut by 50 percent, they have been forced to cut back on capital spending (i.e. drilling) and to slash employment. In Houston, the cuts spread quickly from industry to industry as oil company suppliers and contractors are immediately affected.

There is little doubt that low oil prices are already taking a significant toll on the local economy. Through May, seasonally adjusted job growth in Houston has turned flat for the year, with jobs growing at only a 0.2 percent annual rate since December. Figure 1 illustrates how the regional economy leveraged $100 oil to grow much faster than the U.S. after 2009 — and also how low oil prices are already hurting the economy in 2015. The local Purchasing Managers Index, a leading economic indicator for Houston, has turned sharply negative and is now pointing ahead to a significant decline in the economy. (Figure 2) The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has joined the growing pessimism, and is now forecasting statewide job growth to fall below one percent in 2015. The Houston metro area will be caught between two major energy events: it will be hurt worse than much of the rest of the state by the drilling decline, but also will be helped more by the petrochemical expansion underway.

The decline in drilling has run faster and deeper than we anticipated in earlier scenarios for Houston growth. The decline in the rig count has outpaced even the 2008-09 decline that was brought on by financial crisis, major recession, and a fall in the price of oil to $35 per barrel. More than half of domestic rigs have been cut (55.5%), 50 fewer rigs are working than at the same point in the 2009 decline, and — while the rate of decline is slowing – no bottom has been reached yet.

It is fairly easy to picture the impact of a falling rig count on producing regions such as the Eagle Ford or Permian Basin. A recent study from Rice University put the employment impact of putting a drilling rig into service at 37 immediate new jobs, and after all the multipliers work out — beginning with oil service companies, machinery and fabricated metal, engineering, management, and ultimately reaching the grocery store and pharmacy — there are 224 new jobs. This also works in reverse, of course, and the loss of 1072 working rigs through June has put in train the ultimate loss of over 240,000 drilling-related jobs.4

The producing regions first feel the impact of a falling rig count, of course, but how is Houston affected? Houston does not produce much oil, with only a few drilling permits issued in the metropolitan area each year, but in late 2014 fully 35.0 percent of Texas oil producer and oil service employment was housed here. This comes about several ways: Houston is home to dozens of large and small oil producers making decisions on where to drill, what to drill for, financing the drilling, and assuming the risk of the projects; Houston is also home to a global oil service industry that does the drilling and testing work at the wellhead for projects around the world; suppliers such as fabricated metal and machinery, pipelines, and engineering companies cluster in Houston to be near their customers — the producers and service companies. Houston’s oil-related employment is a large white-collar managerial, engineering and technical base that – complemented by an equally large blue collar manufacturing base — forms the headquarters and operational arm of the American oil industry.5

How is Houston affected as the rig count falls by half?

  • We discussed earlier how oil producers, the key decision makers in the oil industry, now find cash flow reduced by half, must cut capital investment and drilling, and reduce expenses including direct employment and contractors. There is still a shortage of core skills in the industry – geologists, geophysicists, reservoir engineers, or drilling engineers – and there will be a bias to hoard this technical experience. In the 2008-09 downturn, oil producer employment remained very stable, despite the depth of the downturn.
  • The oil service companies work at the wellhead, and will be forced to cut crews in producing regions around the world as the rig count falls. Like the producers, they will hoard high-level technical skills, but even Houston will see heavy cuts as the workload falls right along with the rig count.
  • A large Houston manufacturing base in machinery and fabricated metal is linked directly to upstream oil. Figure 3 shows how in recent years these industries made Houston one of a handful of American cities that could claim to house a rapidly growing number of manufacturing jobs. The machinery industry is tied closely to drilling, and had already slowed with the collapse of natural gas prices in late 2011. Fabricated metal is now feeling the current decline in the rig count, but should get some relief from on-going petrochemical construction activity, as machine shops for example will be able to replace some of their lost upstream work.

  • Oil producers and oil service companies are diligent about out-sourcing many of their non-core activities. Operating in a highly-cyclical and commodity-based business, periodic downturns are expected; it is easier to fire a contractor than your own employees, and advantageous as activity slows to be able to pull work from contractors and back into your business. In Houston, this applies to many white-collar jobs such as legal, engineering, personnel, payroll, or accounting, and out-sourcing makes Houston’s white-collar employment highly cyclical.
  • Houston has about 450,000 jobs in the professional and business services sector, a sector is comprised of exactly the kind of white-collar office employment described above. Figure 4 compares the growth rate of this sector (the red line) with that of total employment (blue). While we often think of the service sector (retail, health care, education) as relatively stable, it is clear this particular sector is not, as it grows much faster in good times and declines faster in tough times. How much faster? For every one percent change in total employment in Houston, there is a 2.0 percent change in professional and business services – whether up or down.
  • Table 2 compares Houston’s 2.0 percent change to other large U.S. metropolitan areas. The typical U.S. metro area sees only a 1.09 percent change in these white-collar jobs for each one percent change in total jobs, but a higher figure is typical of the largest metropolitan areas. We find Houston standing alone at the top of the list with the most volatile swings in white-collar employment of all the large cities. Chicago is number two at 1.86, a city built on a large and highly cyclical manufacturing base, and Miami at 1.83 is dependent on an unpredictable Latin American economy and even less predictable exchange rates. Washington, D.C. and the federal bureaucracy have the most stable office employment on the list.

  • Oil industry out-sourcing provides the entry point for large numbers of white-collar and office-based layoffs. Houston’s west side is home to the vast majority of these jobs, most based in the Energy Corridor and Galleria areas. The extraordinary recent growth of the oil industry has injected a powerful flow of energy-related professionals into the west side, many of them young, and now the flow is likely to slow sharply. This puts at risk many projects that depend on white-collar customers or tenants, such as high-end apartments, upscale retail, and office buildings.
  • Finally, every energy job in Houston supports four others in Houston. Some will be the machinery, metals, and out-sourced, white-collar employment already discussed, but job losses ultimately extend down to the neighborhood grocery store and dry cleaner. Perhaps because there is some catch-up to be done in response to the strength of recent economic and population growth, we see sectors such as bars and restaurants, hotels, and retail continuing to hire quite strongly through the first five months of 2015. In fact, they are hiring at the same rate as 2014, i.e., as if they expect another 100,000 new jobs in Houston this year. Sooner or later these local services must slow to reflect the bad economic news now driving the fundamental energy sectors in Houston, sectors that can provide leadership for the Houston economy.

Oil Price Outlook

Bulls and bears are both presenting strongly held arguments for their views on the outlook for oil prices.

  • Falling U.S. oil production is the key to rebalancing oil markets, and bulls argue that oil production is already responding — or soon will respond — to a falling U.S. rigs count. By late 2015, we will see U.S. production fall back to the levels of late 2014 were the oil price slide began. Once oil price rises, producers will exercise constraint, not spend at rates that outstrip cash flow as they did before. We are seeing a real firming of global demand, led by Europe and the emerging markets, which can only accelerate the correction. See Figure 5.
  • Bears argue that demand might be improving incrementally, but it is hardly the good old days. Anyway, there is a huge overhang of storage to work off, and a growing inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells. Deep-pocketed producers have drilled 4,000 wells to take advantage of low drilling cost, but have not completed the wells. In response to a rise in price, the producers could bring on 500,000 barrels per day of new production in only a few months.

These disparate views on market fundamentals are reflected in recent forecasts for oil prices. Major public institutions like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) all converge on a longer-term price near $75 dollars per barrel. Opinions vary in the near-term, however, with the EIA seeing oil prices averaging above $70 per barrel as early as 2017, while the World Bank does not expect to see oil an annual average above $70 per barrel before 2020. (Figure 6.) A look at forecasts from large financial institutions provides more of a spread, with 2016 forecasts ranging from $55 to $90 per barrel. Perhaps the most telling data regarding the uncertainty about future oil prices comes from a recent report from the IMF, asking analysts to provide the range needed for 2016 or 2017 for them to be 95 percent sure that a forecast of oil prices would fall in that range. The answer was $28 to $108 for 2016 and $28 to $138 for 2017.6 This nicely underscores the near-complete uncertainty associated with the near-term outlook for oil prices – and the risk to the Houston economy that follows immediately on its heels.

Outlook for Houston

The fundamentals of economic events in Houston today have been presented in a previous reports and presentations.7 Early this year, and through the spring, it was possible to hold out the thought that oil prices might stabilize, perhaps hoping oil markets had overshot equilibrium or that the Saudis might relent and support oil prices. Previous updates have focused on a possible optimistic outlook with early/higher stabilization in oil prices, as well as a scenario with a “more likely” deep downturn in drilling. Both scenarios assumed that the U.S. economy stays strong through 2018, and that substantial levels of petrochemical construction in east Houston continues and partially offsets the drilling downturn in 2016 and 2017.

We have now reached the point where hopes for a short or moderate drilling downturn are behind us, as oil markets have turned down faster and plunged deeper than expected. The relevant question becomes how long a serious downturn will last. Table 3 summarizes the oil market scenarios we worked with previously, and compares them to two current scenarios. The first difference is that we were too optimistic about the speed and depth of the drilling decline, which has already exceeded prior expectations. The current and most likely scenario, still assumes that oil markets rebalance by the end of the year, drilling picks up and returns to high levels by mid-2016. The alternative scenario – it was previously a more optimistic alternative – has shifted to a more pessimistic outlook, with oil markets not rebalancing before mid-2016 and drilling only returning to high levels by early 2017. The new scenarios are both more pessimistic than previously about the short-term, but more optimistic about the long-term outlook. We have learned from this downturn that shale may be more resilient than previously thought: the long-term outlook for shale oil is probably more cyclical, but drilling for shale can return to high levels of $70-$75 per barrel.

Just as we asked previously: What level of employment and job growth is consistent with a combination of these oil market assumptions and solid U.S. growth?8 We put aside the petrochemical boom in east Houston for the moment. Both scenarios would bring a mild recession to Houston: Scenario 1 leads to a cumulative decline of 51,800 jobs or 1.7 percent over three quarters, while Scenario 2 brings a loss of 74,100 jobs or 2.5 percent over 5 quarters. You can compare these job losses to earlier recessions in Table 1, and the assumptions would bring the worst oil-driven downturn since 1982 except for 2008-09. Figure 7 makes the same point. Note the much faster rebound in Scenario 2 after being held down for an additional two quarters, with the job market reacting like a rubber band that has been pulled more and more tautly.

The Petrochemical Boom

Previous reports have covered at length the roots of the current boom in petrochemical construction on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast at length.9 Horizontal drilling and fracturing was developed initially to produce natural gas, and strong growth in gas production, slow growth in the U.S. economy, and a limited ability to export natural gas combined in late 2011 to collapse and seriously depress natural gas prices. These low natural gas prices have resulted in tremendous competitive advantages for North American producers of petrochemicals, plastics, and synthetic rubber. This stems from the rest of the world — outside North America –relying on oil-based naphtha to make its petrochemicals. Until recently, feedstock costs were $100 per barrel in the rest of the world, and the equivalent of $20 per barrel in the U.S. based on natural gas prices. The promise of low natural gas prices, continued high oil prices, and a well-established energy and transportation infrastructure on the Gulf Coast has kicked off a tremendous boom in construction of petrochemical facilities and liquefaction plants to export natural gas.

Our “most likely” scenario used in earlier reports combined a significant downturn in drilling activity with continued high levels of natural gas-driven construction. The first event is the result of low oil prices, and the second the result of low natural gas prices. The assumption that these construction projects will continue despite tough times in drilling turns out to have been the right one. While margins for petrochemicals based on oil feed stocks have risen, and the competitive advantages of natural gas is now sharply lower, sponsors of these projects are looking out several years. These companies are large, deep-pocketed corporations such as ExxonMobil, ChevronPhillips, and Dow. Looking through the oil price decline, they see high petrochemical margins restored as oil prices rise in 2016 and 2017, or at about the same time as their plants are completed. Labor and machine shop capacity is also now more available, as resources have been freed up by the drilling bust. The best sign of continued enthusiasm about the future of these plants is that large new plants are still being announced.

Table 4 shows a list of 10 large projects currently underway in the 9-county Houston metro area that account for $25 billion in construction; another 6 smaller projects add another $1.7 billion; and another 10 projects have no announced cost. This approximately $30 billion in on-going construction should add a significant cushion against the kind of drilling-driven downturn described in Figure 7.

Downstream construction activity is not confined to the Houston area, with similar levels of construction activity underway in the Victoria/Corpus Christi corridor, and well as another concentration of activity near Lake Charles/Sabine Pass.

Accounting for this construction as part of the outlook for Houston’s employment has been described in earlier reports. On the one hand, it is a buffer against the drilling collapse. But its ability to work as a buffer has its limits: the construction is temporary, will wind down in 2016 and 2017, and the blue-collar workers drawn to the Gulf Coast will be a very imperfect substitute for the white-collar professionals lost to the drilling bust. With Houston divided along Highway 59, the upstream drilling downturn that will hit many white-collar professionals is going to run unabated in west Houston, while east Houston generally sees boom times for its blue-collar workforce. If job growth remains positive overall, it will be felt very differently and unevenly across the metro area.

We have added this extraordinary construction activity into the forecast, much as we did previously. The construction activity has been accelerated from previous forecasts, but labor constraints and limited multipliers make it difficult to move the employment forecast by much. Meanwhile, the accelerated and deeper downturn in drilling takes a bigger toll than previous scenarios. The result, summarized in Table 5, is only about 13,000 new jobs in Houston in 2015, rebounding to 61,300 in 2016. In Scenario 2, where the downturn lasts two quarters longer, there are 13,000 jobs in 2015, while 2016 brings only 15,600, then we get a very strong bounce back in 2017. Our “most likely” scenario in March was 53,600 jobs in 2015 and 46,100 in 2017.

These scenarios imply, that once the cyclical factors are worked out, and based on assumptions about the ultimate future of shale oil production, Houston’s long-term employment growth would return to about 2.1 percent or very near its average of the last 25 years. If shale is less successful, as in Scenario 2, Houston’s long-term job growth falls to 1.7 percent.

Conclusion

Oil prices have been falling or at low levels for a year, and prospects for a quick turnaround in in the oil industry is fading. Even with the U.S. economy improved and growing with some strength, the length and depth of the current drilling downturn would normally bring a mild recession to Houston. Fortunately, another very large energy event is taking place on the Texas Gulf Coast as well, with low oil prices driving a major construction boom. The construction provides a partial offset to the shale bust, but the temporary nature of the work limits its overall impact. Adding these construction jobs into the mix probably keeps Houston out of recession, but not by much. If oil prices revive by the end of 2015, and drilling returns to high levels by mid-2016, Houston would add about 13,000 jobs in 2016 and 61,000 in 2017. If oil prices don’t revive until the middle of 2017, with drilling back at high levels by year-end, it means back-to-back years of very slow growth in Houston before the local economy stages a very strong recovery.

The shale boom is at least temporarily at an end, and Houston is caught squarely in the downdraft. The employment figures we presented in Table 5 for 2015 to 2018 are not forecasts – just two scenarios consistent with the current facts and our estimate of how Houston’s economy would respond in these particular circumstances. The path of oil prices over the next few quarters is simply unpredictable right now, and the near-term outlook for the local economy inevitably shares that uncertainty. We can be sure oil will return to profitable levels above $65-$70 per barrel in the not-too-distant future – but timing is everything.

Notes

1 This material is slightly updated from the May 12, 2015 Economic Symposium sponsored by the Institute for Regional Forecasting, Bauer College of Business, University of Houston.

2 R.W. Gilmer, “For Better and For Worse: Oil Industry Still Drives Houston’s Economic Outlook,” Institute for Regional Forecasting, Bauer College of Business, University of Houston December 16, 2014, http://www.bauer.uh.edu/centers/irf/houston-updates-dec14.php; R.W. Gilmer and A.W. Perdue, “Houston and Low Oil Prices: An Update on the Economic Outlook,” Institute for Regional Forecasting, March 24, 2015 http://www.bauer.uh.edu/centers/irf/houston-updates-march15.php

3 American Chemistry Council, “New Manufacturing Projects Are Growing Our Economy and Creating Jobs,” 2015 http://www.americanchemistry.com/Policy/Energy/Shale-Gas/Shale-Investment-Infographic.pdf

4 Mark Agerton, et al., “Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States,” RISE Initiative for the Study of Economics, RISE Working Paper 14-004, Rice University, July 28, 2014

5 R.W. Gilmer, “Houston: America’s Oil Headquarters,” Tierra Grande, Publication 2051, Texas A&M Real Estate Center, January, 2014

6 Figure 1.SF.4, “Brent Price Prospects,” IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2015, p. 29.

7 See note 1 above.

8 Why scenarios? I have been careful not to call the outlook presented here a forecast. The distinction has to do with the uncertainty that surrounds the current outlook, particularly the outlook for oil prices. Tell me the gender, height, and bone structure of someone, and I can predict their weight fairly well. Left to guess their gender or height, I have a different statistical and logical problem. Tell me the performance of the U.S. economy and the price of oil, and I can tell you a lot about the outlook for Houston’s job growth. Left to guess the price of oil, as we are today, we should not disguise the fact that there is great uncertainty about local job growth. The employment growth numbers presented here are consistent with oil market assumptions in Table 3, strong U.S. growth, and high levels of petrochemical construction in east Houston. There is planning value in understanding how Houston’s economy reacts to these assumptions, that this is not 1982, and that as far as we can currently see there is no major recession lurking on the economic horizon. But if oil markets go elsewhere, so does the Houston economy.

9 See note 8 above.

Written by:
Robert W. Gilmer, Ph.D.
Institute for Regional Forecasting
June 23, 2015

Great read for working moms! via LinkedIin.com by Sallie Krawcheck: The Handful of Smart Things I Did as a Working Mom

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As a working you mom you need all the encouragement you can get. I just thought I would share with all my working mommies out there. 

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/handful-smart-things-i-did-working-mom-sallie-krawcheck

The Handful of Smart Things I Did as a Working Mom | Sallie Krawcheck | LinkedIn// <![CDATA[
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