Industry News and Updates
This will be my last newsletter of 2016! I recently attended a symposium sponsored by the Institute of Regional Forecasting – University of Houston, Bauer College of Business (Go Coogs!). I have shared the information I learned with you below. While I’ve inserted some of my opinions, I can’t take any credit for this. This information was presented by Robert Gilmer, Ph.D.
- Houston (more than likely) hit a mild recession the end of 2015 / beginning of 2016.
- Houston is not going to enjoy a V shaped recovery. This will be a very slow recovery for us.
- We lost about 80,000 oil related jobs (these jobs also impacted other industries as it trickles down).
- In the past 21 months we have added 26,300 jobs. In 2016, we added 5,600 (this could be revised downwards).
- Most of the jobs created in the past 21 months were related to the drop in natural gas prices and the petrochemical construction boom on the east side of Houston.
- The worst SHOULD be behind us.
- Oil has almost doubled in price since January!
- Overall demand for oil globally is still growing (slowly), but there is still too much supply.
- Oil needs to be at 60 dollars or above outside of the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin can make a profit at 45 dollars a barrel. This is where the rig count has grown by 150 rigs!
- Jobs come back 2 quarters after rig count goes up.
- There are 3 likely scenarios for 2017. Highly optimistic: Jobs come back Q1; Somewhat optimistic: Jobs come back Q2; Not very optimistic: Jobs come back the end of 2017. In my opinion we will see a steady pick up over the year.
- No matter what: 2018 and 2019 should be great years for Houston!
Please feel free to email me any questions about this data. I know it’s a lot to take in. I do believe that we are starting to make the turnaround. The key indicator to me is that positions with oil & gas companies are starting to be replaced when someone leaves. That also means that other companies are hiring them away. I am very optimistic about 2017 and definitely think we have put the worst behind us.
Have a great holiday! See you next year!
- National Unemployment Rate: 4.7 (last year 4.9)
- Houston Unemployment Rate: 5.1 (last year 4.7)
- Labor Participation Rate: 62.8% (last year 62.50%) – All time high January 2000: 67.30% / All-time low 1977: 62.4%
- Manufacturing Index: 51.5 (last year 48) – from what I have read 50 is the magic number! YES!!!!!
- Oil Rig Count: 580 (last year 760) – all time high around 1900 in 2012!
- Price of Oil: 51.06 (last year around 50.90)
- Industries hiring: Retail, Manufacturing, Limited Oil & Gas is coming back, Non Profit, Public Accounting Firms!!!!
- Positions in demand: Audit & Tax Public Accounting SUPER HOT!, Staff Accountant, Internal Audit, SEC or Big 4 backgrounds are in high demand
- The follow-up email that works even better than “Just Checking In”: http://wp.me/puDjI-1yk
- Handling the impossible question: what are your weaknesses? http://wp.me/puDjI-1yD
- Why the color of your suit matters: http://wp.me/puDjI-1xQ
- Interview Preparation Checklist: https://dianedelgadolemaire.com/short-interview-preparation-checklist/
Current list of openings:
- Spanish Speaking Staff Accountant – SW
- Budget Analyst – SW
- Senior JIB Accountant – NW Houston
- Director of Compensation – Katy
- Senior Financial Analyst – Galleria
- Senior Property Accountant – Galleria
- Senior Financial Reporting Specialist – North
- Controller for small/midsize Company- CFO track – Humble
- Senior Accounting Analyst – Special Projects – 3 to 4 years of public accounting – Southwest
- Audit Manager – Public Accounting – Growing firm!!!!!
- Rotational Audit Role – International Travel – Big 4 Background – Galleria
- Senior Treasury Analyst – DT – Big 4 or Large Regional Firm background
- Operational Auditor – Westchase
- Senior Payroll Accountant – SW
- Senior and Staff Investment Analyst – Investment banking experience
- Senior Financial Analyst – North Houston
- Reduced work week hours: Tax Manager or Supervisor or Senior – small public accounting firm
- Consultant with professional services firm – Big 4 Auditors – Downtown
- Senior Internal Auditor – Northwest
- Financial Reporting Accountant – West & Downtown
- Staff Internal Auditor – Galleria
- Tax Staff Accountant – Galleria
- Tax Senior Accountant – High Net Wealth
- Staff Auditor – Public Accounting
- Senior Auditor – Public Accounting
- Senior Accountant – NW Houston
- Senior Insurance Accountant – NW Houston
- Staff Accountant – NW Houston
- Property Accountant Senior
- Audit Senior – 60% travel
- Associate Manager / Manager – Professional Services Firm – Consulting on high profile projects – full time role – need at least 2.5 year of public accounting and maybe a splash of industry to qualify
Diane Delgado LeMaire
Senior Managing Director, Executive Search & Branch Manager